Shimeesha

Shimeesha
Click on the image if you love art and/or me!

Monday, 18 May 2009

Its the market corrections, stupid!

Its now almost mid 2009 and the world is sunk in an economic gloom that makes the era of Great Depression looks like the good old days. Despite $700 billion packages and governments throwing money at the problem left, right and centre, we are nowhere close to relief. Worldwide unemployment and debt figures are rising and indirectly affecting all relief and charitable causes. That in itself, makes this recession far worse than other similar episodes in history.
Now some may be strong proponents of the current fiscal policies that have been put in action by countries such as the US and the UK but others, including myself, remain skeptical at best. This is so because fundamental rule of economics states that every boom must be followed by a recession and every recession must be followed by a boom. The operative word being MUST here. It is as basic a law to economics as the sun being the centre of the solar system is to science.
The question that then arises is: why? Why must every recession be followed by a boom? Astounding as the simplicity of the logic will seem, it is so because markets correct themselves. They are ruthless beasts of efficiency and given time and free hand show a strong tendency to correct themselves. Throwing money at them, as current governments are doing, only results in further distortion. It is now being widely concluded by economist world over that we are going to witness a W shaped curve in recovery. We are going to a witness a bit of growth before we plunge into the depths of gloom again and when the markets finally get the opportunity to correct themselves, that is when we will see real growth and real recovery.
Until then, the profit statements of conglomerates such as Citibank are meaningless. Especially since if the government buys all of your toxic debt, there is nothing but profit to be made.
For the minuscule growth that we will see, I fear that the governments will have much to explain. Specifically when their bill for this recession will be really revealed and scrutinised by history.

No comments:

Post a Comment